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Following today’s inflation news – the headline rate stalled month on month at 8.7% – it seems likely the Bank of England will raise the Bank Rate again tomorrow from 4.5% to 4.75% or even 5%. Only the South West, London, the East Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside saw asking price increases last month. Investors we are dealing with are purchasing at 20 to 30% below peak 2022 market values, and only those who need to sell in this market are selling.
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It was followed closely by Yorkshire and Humberside which saw a monthly drop of 2.3%. Asking prices for properties coming onto the market fell by 1.9% this month – almost £7,000 in real terms – according to property portal Rightmove. Regionally, Northern Ireland and the North East of England appear to have been among the more resilient markets. The average property price in Northern Ireland has increased by 2.1% to £180,000 in the year to quarter three of 2023 (July to September). Borrowers applying for a new mortgage would have a payment stress test with rates at 6% and 7% for example, even when fixed mortgage rates were under 2%. However, the average figures mask significant variations across the UK nations.
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It is the 10th consecutive monthly fall in house price inflation, as higher mortgage rates and the cost of living continue to put downward pressure on the housing market. In terms of regional performance, the south west of England recorded the strongest annual house price growth with a figure of 12.9%. London recorded the lowest figure with average prices up 5.1% in the year to November 2021.
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Andrea Riquier is a New York-based writer covering mortgages and the housing market for Forbes Advisor. She was previously at Dow Jones MarketWatch, on the housing market and financial markets beats. Before that, she covered macro and central banks for Investor's Business Daily, and municipal bonds for Debtwire.
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However, this is an improvement in the -5.5% recorded in the 12 months to November. House price data from the Office for National Statistics show values falling by 1.4% in the year to December, putting the average cost of a property in the UK at £285,000. Regionally, Scotland is the UK’s best performer in February, posting the biggest jump in both monthly and annual asking prices at 5.9% and 3.7% respectively. This positivity is reinforced by a marked increase in the number of homes being sold. The first six weeks of this year saw 16% more homes sold than the same period in 2023, according to Rightmove, and 3% more compared to the pre-Covid market of 2019.
The firm said Londoners have led the way in “city out-migration”, one of the key property market trends of the pandemic. Between January and June 2021, Londoners bought 61,830 homes outside the capital, with properties located an average 34.6 miles away from the capital. Londoners bought a record number of homes outside the capital in the first six months of 2021 according to estate agent Hamptons. Rightmove explained that the slight cooling was mainly driven by a 0.8% fall in the price of upper-end, four-bedroom-plus properties, a result of the tapered stamp duty holiday which comes to an end next month. The firm said the average price of property coming to market in August dipped by £1,076, a decrease of 0.3%.
At the same time, affordability checks were also introduced designed to stop customers from building up excessive debt. This meant that would-be borrowers had to be able to show that they could still afford their mortgage repayments if interest rates rose by three percentage points. Wales saw the steepest increase with average property values 15.5% up on last year at £203,000. In Scotland, prices rose by 11.3% over the year to reach an average £181,000. The annual rate of inflation slowed from 12.3% in the year to September, and reflects the first month there has not been a stamp duty incentive in any part of the UK.
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From there, you’ll be expected to repay your loan in fixed monthly payments for the loan term. A mortgage loan term is the maximum length of time you have to repay the loan. It is possible to pay down your loan faster than the set term by making additional monthly payments toward your principal loan balance.
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House prices edged up slightly by 0.9% in October, according to the latest data from Nationwide building society’s, but they are 3.3% lower than a year ago. The 1.7% drop in prices, the biggest November price slump since 2018, takes the average asking price nationally to £362,143. Rightmove says the pandemic-driven shortage of housing stock for sale is over, with available properties now just 1% behind 2019. This contrasts to the South West which saw the biggest fall, a drop of 1.6% in the year (average price £329,000). The Bank of England has held its Bank Rate at 5.25% on the past two occasions it has reviewed the figure.
The figures point to a cooling of the housing market at the end of last year in the wake of the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-Budget in September, which rocked market confidence and led to an increase in mortgage rates. “There has been a clear shift towards flats as the early buyers focus on value-for-money and adjust expectations given the hit to buying power from higher mortgage rates. A proportion of existing homeowners are holding back waiting to see if sizable price falls materialise, and how far mortgage rates fall back before entering the market.
The property website’s house price index shows that average prices grew by 8.3% in the year to March 2022, down slightly from the 8.8% recorded a month earlier. Zoopla says that average price growth since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 stood at 13%, equal to a rise of about £29,000 over the two-year period. The lowest annual house price growth was seen in London, where average prices increased by 8.2% over the 12 months to May.
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